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Customer Concentration and Account-Loss Scenarios

Measure listed-account exposure and compare how losing one or two accounts changes EBITDA, defined cash and annual debt coverage.

Your inputs stay in this page. Account references, local CSV data and scenario calculations are not uploaded, stored in the browser or put in a URL. An explicit export creates a local JSON file.

One annual period and company cash definitionAnnual reporting period

Company annual revenue ($)Normalized annual EBITDA ($)Annual maintenance capital spending ($)Annual cash taxes ($)Annual working-capital cash investment ($)Positive uses cash. A documented cash release can be negative.Other annual cash needs ($)All scheduled annual debt service ($)Include bank, seller and other debt due in this period. Zero means coverage is not applicable.

Accounts or mutually exclusive exposure groups

Use the same annual period as company revenue. Contribution margin is after direct/variable account costs but before the additional costs in the next column. Include those additional costs only if they are already in baseline EBITDA, can actually be removed and have not been counted elsewhere.

Account reference	Annual revenue ($)	Contribution margin (%)	Additional avoidable cost ($)	Edit

Use anonymous references where practical. Do not mix overlapping customer, payer and referral groups. Up to 500 rows; IDs are unique ignoring case. Blank margins remain unresolved.

Import account data from a local CSV

Use one row per account/group and these headers, in order:

customer_id,annual_revenue,contribution_margin_pct,additional_avoidable_cost

Use 40 for a 40% margin. Do not include currency symbols or thousands separators in numbers. A blank margin is permitted for an unselected account, but every selected loss account needs a supported margin.

Choose a local CSV

Download the hypothetical five-account example

Compare one-account and two-account losses

First loss accountSecond loss account (optional)

Changing account references refreshes these selections. Shared avoidable costs must be assigned once across a two-account scenario.

Use contribution, not lost revenue alone

Lost contribution = lost account revenue × supported contribution margin
Scenario EBITDA = baseline EBITDA − lost contribution + additional avoidable costs
Cash before debt = scenario EBITDA − maintenance capex − cash taxes − WC cash investment − other cash needs
Cash after debt = cash before debt − all annual debt service
Coverage = cash before debt / all annual debt service

Annual cash deductions and scheduled debt remain fixed across these scenarios. Additional avoidable costs are incremental to the direct costs already excluded in the contribution margin. They must be present in baseline EBITDA and actually disappear in the scenario. Do not allocate the same manager, branch or other shared cost to both selected accounts.

A worked account-loss example

Illustrative company revenue is $2 million and EBITDA is $350,000. Account A has $300,000 revenue, 40% contribution and $30,000 additional avoidable cost. Losing A gives $260,000 EBITDA: $350,000 − $120,000 + $30,000. After $50,000 maintenance capital spending, the defined cash subtotal is $210,000. With $233,906.80 annual debt service, coverage is about 0.898×.

Account B has $200,000 revenue, 30% contribution and $10,000 additional avoidable cost. Losing both A and B gives $210,000 EBITDA, $160,000 cash before debt and about 0.684× coverage under the same fixed cash/debt assumptions.

Listed exposure is a bounded view

The five-account example covers $800,000, or 40%, of company revenue. The largest listed account represents 15%; the top three listed accounts represent 32.5%. The unlisted 60% may contain larger accounts. The tool therefore labels these as listed-account measures and does not claim they are company-wide rankings unless the complete population is supplied.

Missing data and boundaries

Company and listed revenues cannot be negative; listed revenue cannot exceed the stated company total. Margins are entered from 0% to 100%; a negative-margin account needs a separately reviewed cost model. A missing selected margin is not zero. Negative company EBITDA or cash remains negative. A documented working-capital cash release can be negative. Zero company revenue makes revenue shares unavailable. Zero debt makes coverage not applicable.

Interpret the scenario before using it

No universal concentration threshold or lender approval ratio is assumed. This is a steady annual sensitivity, not a prediction that an account will leave or a monthly liquidity forecast. It does not model cost-removal delays, exit costs, taxes from a sale, collection losses on past invoices, replacement revenue or changes in the other cash assumptions. If avoided costs exceed lost contribution, review the cost allocation and the evidence for the apparent profit improvement.

Reconcile the period and customer mapping to company revenue. Support margins with job/account costs and each avoidable cost with a concrete removal plan. For seasonal receipts and payments use the monthly acquisition cash schedule. For collected cash and work still owed use the prepaid-service guide. The framework is original scenario arithmetic; it does not convert a result into a valuation multiple.

Continue with the evidence

Read the companion guide

Download the hypothetical account CSV

Primary references

This numerical framework is explained in the companion guide. Contract, accounting and transfer conclusions require the actual evidence and appropriate review.

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